{"id":13295,"date":"2026-07-24T15:08:38","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T15:08:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=13295"},"modified":"2026-07-24T15:08:39","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T15:08:39","slug":"emerging-developments-will-stymie-the-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/emerging-developments-will-stymie-the-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"Emerging developments will stymie the Fed"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center mar-l-hlf pad-l-hlf\" style=\"grid-template-columns:22% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1767\" height=\"1632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6212 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png 1767w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=300,277 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=768,709 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1024,946 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1536,1419 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1767px) 100vw, 1767px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"Intro\">Next week we will be focused on the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. <strong>We expect they will hold interest rates steady<\/strong>,<strong> <\/strong>and continue to expect they will remain on hold for the remainder of 2026.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed continues to be challenged by persistent inflation and has been looking through energy pressures, but that may become more challenging as the Iran war re-escalates. The recent announcement of new tariffs adds another layer of uncertainty and will likely add inflationary pressures in the months ahead. Still, we suspect that the primary takeaway will come from their stated views on risks to the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We will get the Fed\u2019s preferred measure of inflation on Thursday. The PCE deflators are expected to present a more modest deceleration compared to June\u2019s CPI and PPI prints. <strong>Headline PCE is expected to decline -0.1% m\/m<\/strong> with lower gas prices largely responsible. But the combination of weighting and elevated prints in several medical service passthrough components (i.e., in June, PPI for hospitals rose +0.7% m\/m, home health and hospice care rose +0.3% m\/m) explains <strong>the expected 0.2% m\/m rise in core PCE<\/strong> compared to the flat core CPI print in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We look for <strong>personal income to rise +0.4% m\/m<\/strong>,<strong> <\/strong>supported by continued strength in non-labor income (i.e., interest and rent). <strong>Spending is forecasted to have slowed in nominal terms (+0.2% m\/m)<\/strong>, with real spending reporting slightly higher (+0.3% m\/m) as the drop in gas prices flatter the headline deflator. Gas price related spending declines may have temporarily boosted the savings rate, but this rebound is fragile. War escalation has pushed energy commodities back up in recent days, and the year\u2019s outsized tax refunds have largely been spent. In our view, middle and lower income consumers (operating under elevated personal interest expenses) will be caught between reduced savings and a growing reliance on credit. We are monitoring consumer sentiment in the following week with the University of Michigan release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the growth front, <strong>we expect the advance Q2 GDP print to report 2.4%<\/strong>,<strong> <\/strong>a pace that reflects the resilience of the consumer as well as strong business investment in AI infrastructure. The retail sales control group (which excludes autos, gas, food services, and building materials) accelerated at its fastest quarterly pace since 2022, validating the claim that domestic demand remains robust. Alongside outsized equipment investment by the tech hyperscalers, these two sectors alone are expected to contribute nearly 2ppt to headline growth.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-lg-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>AI investment contribution to GDP growth continues to rise<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1942\" height=\"1624\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-24-at-10.48.29-AM.png\" alt=\"RBC Economics - AI investment contribution to GDP growth continues to rise\" class=\"wp-image-13300\" style=\"width:750px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-24-at-10.48.29-AM.png 1942w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-24-at-10.48.29-AM.png?resize=300,251 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-24-at-10.48.29-AM.png?resize=768,642 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-24-at-10.48.29-AM.png?resize=1024,856 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-24-at-10.48.29-AM.png?resize=1536,1284 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1942px) 100vw, 1942px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-t-hlf wp-block-paragraph\">Other indicators to watch next week include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list pad-b\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Durables goods orders are expected to rise +5.7% m\/m<\/strong>,<strong> <\/strong>driven by a rebound in Boeing orders. Stripping out transportation (i.e., orders ex transportation), the demand for AI infrastructure inputs is expected to maintain sturdy growth of <strong>0.6% m\/m.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We look for <strong>initial jobless claims to remain low, with a&nbsp;forecast of 185k<\/strong> for the week ending July 25. The continued absence of broad-based layoff activity reflects structural supply constraints facing the labor force.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a640b6c60dda&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a640b6c60dda\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"5763\" height=\"3488\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/US-WA-Jul-24-2026.png\" alt=\"RBC Economics - US economic indicator watch\" class=\"wp-image-13302\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/US-WA-Jul-24-2026.png 5763w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/US-WA-Jul-24-2026.png?resize=300,182 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/US-WA-Jul-24-2026.png?resize=768,465 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/US-WA-Jul-24-2026.png?resize=1024,620 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/US-WA-Jul-24-2026.png?resize=1536,930 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/US-WA-Jul-24-2026.png?resize=2048,1240 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 5763px) 100vw, 5763px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of US Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior US Economist at RBC. She is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic forecasts across GDP, employment, and inflation, and providing macro commentary through publications, presentations, and the media.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an <em>US<\/em><\/em> <em>Economist at RBC, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":12503,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[86],"tags":[11,118,65,135,58,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-13295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-week-ahead","tag-economy","tag-fed","tag-inflation","tag-jobs","tag-labour-market","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO 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