{"id":1323,"date":"2021-10-07T10:00:39","date_gmt":"2021-10-07T10:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2021\/10\/07\/canadian-home-buyers-see-affordability-slipping-away-fast\/"},"modified":"2025-03-26T04:54:44","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T04:54:44","slug":"canadian-home-buyers-see-affordability-slipping-away-fast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/housing-affordability\/canadian-home-buyers-see-affordability-slipping-away-fast\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian home buyers see affordability slipping away fast"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Highlights<\/h4>\n<ul class=\"disc pad-l\">\n<li><b>RBC&#8217;s aggregate affordability measure worsens the most in more than 30 years:<\/b><br \/>\nIt soared 2.7 percentage points to 45.3% Canada-wide in the second quarter. This was the fourth-straight increase, entirely rolling back the improvement that occurred at the start of the pandemic. <\/li>\n<li><b> Every market and housing category got less affordable:<\/b> RBC measures increased across the board. Toronto, Vancouver and Ottawa recorded the largest deteriorations.<\/li>\n<li><b> Still, ownership costs aren&#8217;t an overly heavy burden in the Prairies and parts of Atlantic Canada:<\/b> They continue to represent a smaller-than-average share of household income in these regions. The burden is heaviest in Vancouver, Toronto and Victoria.<\/li>\n<li><b> Affordability to become even more strained:<\/b> We expect home prices to continue to rise in the near term, as demand-supply conditions generally remain exceptionally tight. This will further raise ownership costs across a wide spectrum of markets and housing categories. That said, the affordability deterioration is poised to moderate. The rate of price appreciation is now slowing in many places, and we project prices to flatten in 2022.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr>\n<div id=\"everviz-bIxTJ32Id\" class=\"everviz-bIxTJ32Id\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/bIxTJ32Id\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<hr>\n<div style=\"background-color: #e4f0f8; padding: 25px\">\n<p style=\"font-size: 24px\"><b>Important revisions to RBC&#8217;s affordability measures<\/b><\/p>\n<p>This instalment of Housing Trends and Affordability introduces two key changes to the calculation of RBC&#8217;s measures that will provide a better representation of the weight of ownership costs across Canada. The impact of these changes is significant, altering both levels (downwards) and trends (flatter) of the measures materially. The first change is the use of a new mortgage rate series\u2014the rate chartered banks charge on funds advanced for 5-year fixed mortgages\u2014that better reflects what borrowers actually pay in the marketplace. Previously, RBC&#8217;s measures were based on the average posted rate from chartered banks, which had become less representative of contracted client rates over the years. The wide difference between the two rate series\u2014posted rates exceeded rates on advanced funds by a whopping 270 basis points in the second quarter\u2014resulted in large downward revisions to mortgage payments and RBC&#8217;s measures (a decline in the measures represents an improvement in affordability). Those revisions are more substantial in recent time periods because the rate difference widened substantially over time. Using the new, lower mortgage rate series slashed 12 percentage points off the previous aggregate RBC measure for Canada in the second quarter.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-kOaYvLQSP\" class=\"everviz-kOaYvLQSP\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/kOaYvLQSP\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>The second change in our methodology is the assumption of a 20% down payment\u2014the minimum for an uninsured conventional mortgage\u2014instead of 25%. The higher loan-to-value going into our calculations has the effect of raising mortgage payments across all time periods. This added 2.4 percentage points to the aggregate measure in the second quarter (with similar-sized increases in earlier periods).<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-Dr7yjap98\" class=\"everviz-Dr7yjap98\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/Dr7yjap98\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>On net, these changes paint a more positive affordability than before. They subtracted a sizable 9.6 percentage points from the national aggregate last quarter though the impact was smaller in the past\u2014it was in fact negligible prior to the 2000s. Revisions to RBC&#8217;s measures are more significant for pricier housing categories (e.g. single-detached homes) and more expensive markets (e.g. Vancouver and Toronto) reflecting their higher interest rate sensitivity. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h4>Widespread price gains deliver a huge blow to affordability<\/h4>\n<p>While Canada&#8217;s housing market isn&#8217;t as frenzied as it was at the start of this year (a good thing), it continues to operate at historically strong levels. Robust demand and extremely tight demand-supply conditions cooked up property values by several more degrees in the second quarter, contributing to a generalized deterioration in affordability. RBC&#8217;s aggregate measure for Canada jumped an outsized 2.7 percentage points\u2014the biggest quarterly increase in more than three decades\u2014to 45.3%, entirely rolling back the sharp improvement we saw at the start of the pandemic.<\/p>\n<h4>Dreams of owning a single-family home more difficult to achieve<\/h4>\n<p>The share of income necessary to cover the costs of owning a single-detached home in Canada is not only high, it&#8217;s also rising rapidly. In the second quarter, that share surged 3.0 percentage points to 49.7%\u2014well above the long-run average of 43.1%. Soaring demand for properties with larger living spaces have lit up single-family home prices during the pandemic. Owning a condo apartment, on the other hand, continues to be relatively more affordable. RBC&#8217;s national condo measure was 32.6% in the second quarter.<\/p>\n<h4>Affordability eroded in all major markets but still within buyers&#8217; reach in many parts of the country<\/h4>\n<p>Toronto (up 4.1 percentage points), Vancouver (up 3.2 percentage points) and Ottawa (up 3.1 percentage points) recorded the largest increases in RBC&#8217;s aggregate measures last quarter though the deterioration was widespread, affecting every market we track. Overall, affordability is most strained in Vancouver (ownership costs represent 63.5% of household income), Toronto (59.1%) and Victoria (48.0%). Ottawa (38.5%) and Montreal (38.4%) are two other markets where RBC&#8217;s aggregate measures look historically high. The situation is more positive in many parts of the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, however. Despite recent increases, RBC&#8217;s measures are still below their long-term average in Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Saint John, Halifax and St. John&#8217;s.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h4><b>Read the full Housing Trends and Affordability report for extensive market-by-market analysis.<\/b><\/h4>\n<div class=\"rds-callout-white\" style=\"border: 1px solid #c4c8cc;\">\n<div class=\"rds-gcw\">\n<div style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\" class=\"img w-mob-100\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/econ-download-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"261\" height=\"177\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-30186\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-inline pad-hlf\" style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\">\n<h4 class=\"mar-t\">Read full report<\/h4>\n<p><a class=\"btn tertiary\" role=\"button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/Housing-Affordability_0921.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-dig-id=\"TNL_211007\" data-dig-category=\"TNL Economics\" data-dig-action=\"mid-funnel click\" data-dig-label=\"Housing Affordability - Sep 2021\">Download<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Canada&#8217;s housing market isn&#8217;t as frenzied as it was at the start of this year, yet continues to operate at historically strong levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":265,"featured_media":1320,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,38,46],"tags":[19,25,11,17,26,27],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-1323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-canadian-housing","category-housing-affordability","tag-alberta","tag-british-columbia","tag-economy","tag-housing","tag-ontario","tag-quebec"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Canadian home buyers see affordability slipping away fast - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"While Canada&#039;s housing market isn&#039;t 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href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/housing-affordability\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Quebec<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Alberta<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">British Columbia<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Economy<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Housing<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Ontario<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Quebec<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":"0","relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 5 years ago","modified":"Updated 1 year ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on October 7, 2021","modified":"Updated on March 26, 2025"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on October 7, 2021 10:00 am","modified":"Updated on March 26, 2025 4:54 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