{"id":13192,"date":"2026-07-23T19:35:49","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T19:35:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=13192"},"modified":"2026-07-23T20:36:24","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T20:36:24","slug":"july-executive-briefing-three-risks-facing-the-us-in-the-second-half-of-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/july-executive-briefing-three-risks-facing-the-us-in-the-second-half-of-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"July Executive Briefing: Three risks facing the US in the second half of 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019ve been consistent: It\u2019s hard to bet against the US economy. Major non-residential infrastructure buildouts, a powerful top-income consumer, and sizeable government spending are keeping the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/cyclical-rebound-in-canada-and-structural-strength-in-the-u-s\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-13192-1b0a8c09\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"economy on track to grow by more than 2% this year\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">economy on track to grow by more than 2% this year<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The labor market is structurally tight, driven by the ongoing exodus of retirees and reduced immigration. We expect the structural hiring in health care to continue, but payroll growth doesn\u2019t send the same signal it once did. We continue to view the unemployment rate as a better indicator of labor market health.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Data over May and June have largely confirmed that the US economy is in a comfortable place as we head into the second half of the year. Tame core inflation measures and strong retail sales mean the worst fears over energy inflation spreading, and\/or consumers faltering under high oil prices have not materialized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At least not yet. Despite our optimistic base case forecast, we continue to monitor for risks in what is an increasingly rosy outlook. We feel confident our forecast is the right one as we take a mid-year moment to think critically about our outlook. Still, the tails around risks are getting fatter, most notably the uncertainty created by the Iran war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a643e1bb79d4&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a643e1bb79d4\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full mar-t mob-mar-t-hlf wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2581\" height=\"1150\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Inf-Top-risks-for-US-economy-in-the-second-half-of-2026.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13270\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Inf-Top-risks-for-US-economy-in-the-second-half-of-2026.png 2581w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Inf-Top-risks-for-US-economy-in-the-second-half-of-2026.png?resize=300,134 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Inf-Top-risks-for-US-economy-in-the-second-half-of-2026.png?resize=768,342 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Inf-Top-risks-for-US-economy-in-the-second-half-of-2026.png?resize=1024,456 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Inf-Top-risks-for-US-economy-in-the-second-half-of-2026.png?resize=1536,684 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Inf-Top-risks-for-US-economy-in-the-second-half-of-2026.png?resize=2048,913 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2581px) 100vw, 2581px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"h-risk-1-a-false-sense-of-safety-on-inflation\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-f2a9d4d08af1b90e44a804d946732a22\">Risk 1: A false sense of safety on inflation<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation eased as a concern in June. The core measures of consumer and producer prices dramatically decelerated as energy prices subsided. As a result, both consumer and market-based measures of inflation expectations dropped. But it\u2019s increasingly looking as though the June sigh of relief was an anomaly, and July is a reversion to the new trend of sticky inflation with upside risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most obviously, energy prices have surged higher in the back end of July. At the time of writing, they are fluctuating around $90\/barrel. While that is lower than the peak in May, prices are still almost 60% higher since the start of the year and nearly 35% higher than the start of July. Importantly, while inflation data will focus on month-over-month and year-over-year changes, consumers are more likely to focus on price levels. Average gasoline prices back up above the $4 psychological threshold matters, and the temporary improvements in real wage growth in June will likely retrace.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The threat of tariffs is back in play, which is disappointing because the peak of tariff pressure on inflation could have been behind us (we had previously expected the peak in Q2). While the implementation of Section 301 tariffs on Canada is likely to have limited impact on our outlook for the US, the US administration has indicated it may be applying <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/us-supreme-court-ruling-does-not-mean-tariffs-are-going-away\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-13192-1b0a8c09\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"new tariffs across dozens of countries\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">new tariffs across dozens of countries<\/a> as temporary global tariffs expire at the end of July. As we\u2019ve covered, tariffs have real impact on goods prices, but with a fairly substantial lag. Tariff refunds provide one-time support to businesses, but they aren\u2019t a permanent fix on an ultimately inflationary policy.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are still cost pressures in the pipeline. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/the-us-producer-price-index-an-early-warning-system-for-inflation\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-13192-1b0a8c09\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Producer prices\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Producer prices<\/a> rose 5.5% year-over-year in June, and leading indicator of finished consumer goods inflation is elevated at 3.6% y\/y. The gap between core goods CPI and finished consumer goods PPI suggests consumer prices still face pressure in the pipeline. That doesn\u2019t sound like a massive gap, but the problem for consumers is there are no signs of outright deflation.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-lg-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The recent trend in core goods CPI trend is the outlier<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a643e1bb8bc7&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a643e1bb8bc7\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2813\" height=\"1875\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/RBC-Economics-The-recent-trend-in-core-goods-CPI-trend-is-the-outlier.png\" alt=\"RBC Economics - The recent trend in core goods CPI trend is the outlier\" class=\"wp-image-13260\" style=\"width:750px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/RBC-Economics-The-recent-trend-in-core-goods-CPI-trend-is-the-outlier.png 2813w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/RBC-Economics-The-recent-trend-in-core-goods-CPI-trend-is-the-outlier.png?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/RBC-Economics-The-recent-trend-in-core-goods-CPI-trend-is-the-outlier.png?resize=768,512 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/RBC-Economics-The-recent-trend-in-core-goods-CPI-trend-is-the-outlier.png?resize=1024,683 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/RBC-Economics-The-recent-trend-in-core-goods-CPI-trend-is-the-outlier.png?resize=1536,1024 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/RBC-Economics-The-recent-trend-in-core-goods-CPI-trend-is-the-outlier.png?resize=2048,1365 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2813px) 100vw, 2813px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"h-risk-2-labor-market-resilience-is-our-base-case-but-not-a-given\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-0790969cd934a7d91577c200278a84a1\">Risk 2: Labor market resilience is our base case, but not a given<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019re long-time believers that structural forces should keep the US labor market tight (see <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/america-needs-workers-not-jobs\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-13192-1b0a8c09\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"America needs workers, not jobs\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">America needs workers, not jobs<\/a>). A shrinking labor force and structural needs for hiring in health care mean the unemployment rate in our base case should stick close to 4.3% for the remainder of the year. However, there are some yellow flags in some recent employment data that should be monitored, particularly if price pressures re-accelerate and businesses find the need to cut costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-june-jobs-report-slowing-payroll-growth-quells-demand-driven-inflation-fears\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-13192-1b0a8c09\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"June employment report\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">June employment report<\/a> provided substantial revisions to prior months, which had previously suggested job growth was strong. The three-month average payroll gain collapsed by more than a third. Net revisions to the prior two months subtracted more jobs than were created in June.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Leisure and hospitality\u2014one of the few bright spots earlier in the year\u2014shed jobs at a pace that reversed the prior month&#8217;s gains entirely. The BLS explicitly flagged &#8220;weaker than usual seasonal hiring,&#8221; the sector has shown no net employment growth in 2026, and the end of the World Cup risks additional layoffs ahead.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Outside of the two sectors mentioned above, there is little to be excited about from a growth perspective. There are pockets of growth\u2014nonresidential construction is benefiting from the AI boom\u2014but residential construction is declining, and we expect the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/us-housing-market-the-deep-freeze-continues\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-13192-1b0a8c09\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"housing market will remain in a deep freeze\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">housing market will remain in a deep freeze<\/a>. The manufacturing sector is seeing strong growth in&nbsp; terms of industrial production, but much of the growth is concentrated in capital intensive, advanced manufacturing sectors that are not adding jobs meaningfully. Critically, trade exposed sectors will face cost pressures as new tariffs come into play on top of rising energy prices. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-jobs-report-labor-market-on-solid-footings-despite-energy-shock-concerns\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-13192-1b0a8c09\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"recent rebound in trade-exposed sectors\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">recent rebound in trade-exposed sectors<\/a> could very well end up being short-lived.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-lg-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The breadth of payroll gains remains below the median over the past 35 years<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a643e1bba1fe&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a643e1bba1fe\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"5625\" height=\"3750\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Three-month-employment-diffusion-index-3.png\" alt=\"RBC Economics - The recent trend in core goods CPI trend is the outlier\" class=\"wp-image-13262\" style=\"width:750px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Three-month-employment-diffusion-index-3.png 5625w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Three-month-employment-diffusion-index-3.png?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Three-month-employment-diffusion-index-3.png?resize=768,512 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Three-month-employment-diffusion-index-3.png?resize=1024,683 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Three-month-employment-diffusion-index-3.png?resize=1536,1024 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Three-month-employment-diffusion-index-3.png?resize=2048,1365 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 5625px) 100vw, 5625px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"h-risk-3-consumers-are-now-more-vulnerable-to-additional-shocks\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-211db88a4c1b40e03e515cac5648d2de\">Risk 3: Consumers are now more vulnerable to additional shocks<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation spikes and labor market wobbles aren\u2019t new, even in the past few years. Consumers have weathered those storms thanks to strong balance sheets, steady employment, strong non-labor income growth, and more recently, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-whats-changing-and-why-it-matters-in-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-13192-1b0a8c09\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"tax refunds\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">tax refunds<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet heading into the second half of 2026, some of those buffers that served consumers well have worn down. In June, we flagged the declining savings rate and slower growth in real wages as a limit on how fast US consumption can grow. These measures will be increasingly important to monitor as tax refunds have largely been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/oil-price-shock-higher-us-inflation-could-weigh-on-consumers\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-13192-1b0a8c09\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"used up on higher gas prices\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">used up on higher gas prices<\/a>. And let\u2019s not forget, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/how-household-wealth-is-helping-drive-consumption-in-the-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-13192-1b0a8c09\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"K-shaped economy is still fully in play\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">K-shaped economy is still fully in play<\/a>. These are longer-term vulnerabilities, not temporary ones, that have become amplified this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US consumer held on over the first half of the year, but any combination of higher inflation, job market weakness, and\/or a Federal Reserve that responds with higher interest rates risks a more pronounced reaction from the consumer than what we\u2019ve become accustomed to since the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-lg-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Levels matter and gas prices around $4 per gallon don\u2019t help the consumer<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a643e1bbaf4c&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a643e1bbaf4c\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2813\" height=\"1876\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Gasoline-inflation-EIA-vs-1.png\" alt=\"RBC Economics - Levels matter and gas prices around  per gallon don\u2019t help the consumer\" class=\"wp-image-13223\" style=\"width:750px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Gasoline-inflation-EIA-vs-1.png 2813w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Gasoline-inflation-EIA-vs-1.png?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Gasoline-inflation-EIA-vs-1.png?resize=768,512 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Gasoline-inflation-EIA-vs-1.png?resize=1024,683 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Gasoline-inflation-EIA-vs-1.png?resize=1536,1024 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Gasoline-inflation-EIA-vs-1.png?resize=2048,1366 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2813px) 100vw, 2813px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 id=\"h-growth-outlook\" class=\"wp-block-heading is-style-heading-underline-left has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-0b3957f3a583866d13356b90d44ec960\">Growth outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<p class=\"mar-b-hlf mob-mar-b-qtr wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>House view: <\/strong>US economic resilience continues, with underlying growth slightly above the 2% trend, though diverging trends persist beneath it. AI continues to drive the entirety of the business investment story: spending on information processing equipment and data center infrastructure has surged, while CAPEX outside of the AI remains exceptionally weak. On the consumer side, there are signs that consumer buffers in Middle America are developing cracks worth monitoring. With energy prices rising once again, we view risks to the economy as roughly balanced, with downside surprises still possible should another inflationary shock rear its head and upside surprises still possible from productivity and the AI investment boom.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a643e1bbbee2&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a643e1bbbee2\" class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full mar-t mar-b-dbl wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1325\" height=\"1675\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/GDP-Forecast-July-2026.png\" alt=\"RBC Economics - MEB - GDP Forecast - July 2026\" class=\"wp-image-13251\" style=\"object-fit:cover\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/GDP-Forecast-July-2026.png 1325w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/GDP-Forecast-July-2026.png?resize=237,300 237w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/GDP-Forecast-July-2026.png?resize=768,971 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/GDP-Forecast-July-2026.png?resize=810,1024 810w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/GDP-Forecast-July-2026.png?resize=1215,1536 1215w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1325px) 100vw, 1325px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-inflation-outlook\" class=\"wp-block-heading is-style-heading-underline-left has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-abd56ec7872942784e0df448742af444\">Inflation outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<p class=\"mar-t-hlf mob-mar-t-qtr wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>House view:<\/strong> Even as energy prices settle, inflationary pressures remain broad and persistent. Housing inflation is still running hot, strong wage growth continues to put a floor under core services, and tariff passthrough to core goods is still likely coming through the pipeline \u2013 as evidenced by the gap between PPI and CPI. We expect core inflation to settle just below 3% by year-end. &nbsp;The new wrinkle in our outlook is incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh who has decidedly positioned the central bank as keen to return inflation back to the 2% target. Should the Fed begin hiking again, the heat under inflation may be more contained.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a643e1bbc984&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a643e1bbc984\" class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full mar-t mar-b-dbl wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1325\" height=\"1670\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/MEB-CPI-Forecast-July-2026.png\" alt=\"RBC Economics - MEB - CPI Forecast - July 2026\" class=\"wp-image-13249\" style=\"object-fit:cover\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/MEB-CPI-Forecast-July-2026.png 1325w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/MEB-CPI-Forecast-July-2026.png?resize=238,300 238w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/MEB-CPI-Forecast-July-2026.png?resize=768,968 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/MEB-CPI-Forecast-July-2026.png?resize=812,1024 812w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/MEB-CPI-Forecast-July-2026.png?resize=1219,1536 1219w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1325px) 100vw, 1325px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-labor-market-outlook\" class=\"wp-block-heading is-style-heading-underline-left has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-71684d6101386e0f3507a867e5e2ff81\">Labor market outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<p class=\"is-style-default default mar-b-hlf mob-mar-b-qtr wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>House view: <\/strong>We continue to expect both structural factors will keep the US labor market very tight even with some cyclical weakness. Monthly hiring in the US labor market has outpaced expectations \u2013 especially in the context of exceptionally low breakeven employment. But recent payroll growth has been revised lower, and the breadth of hiring is still well below the 30-year median. Employment in white-collar sectors remains in decline, contributing to a significant skills-matching problem facing new graduates. Real wage growth improved in June, but a reversal means the risk of demand destruction has not fully dissipated.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a643e1bbd442&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a643e1bbd442\" class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full mar-t mar-b-dbl wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1325\" height=\"1555\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/MEB-Unemployment-Forecast-July-2026.png\" alt=\"RBC Economics - MEB - Jobs Forecast - July 2026\" class=\"wp-image-13256\" style=\"object-fit:cover\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/MEB-Unemployment-Forecast-July-2026.png 1325w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/MEB-Unemployment-Forecast-July-2026.png?resize=256,300 256w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/MEB-Unemployment-Forecast-July-2026.png?resize=768,901 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/MEB-Unemployment-Forecast-July-2026.png?resize=873,1024 873w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/MEB-Unemployment-Forecast-July-2026.png?resize=1309,1536 1309w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1325px) 100vw, 1325px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-391a4b4ebf7ed27dd854052bfc85ff87\" id=\"h-download-the-report\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/July-Executive-Briefing-Three-risks-facing-the-US-in-the-second-half-of-2026.pdf\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-13192-cbaee298\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Download the report\" class=\"rbc-link-format rbc-link-format pdf-link\" data-icon-class=\"pdf-link\">Download the report<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Frances Donald<\/strong><em>&nbsp;is the Chief Economist at RBC and oversees a team of leading professionals, who deliver economic analyses and insights to inform RBC clients around the globe. Frances is a key expert on economic issues and is highly sought after by clients, government leaders, policy makers, and media in the US and Canada.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of US Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":12165,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[94,81],"tags":[11,103,65,135,58,109,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-13192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-featured-analysis","category-us-analysis","tag-economy","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-jobs","tag-labour-market","tag-tariffs","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - 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