{"id":12896,"date":"2026-07-14T14:38:23","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T14:38:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=12896"},"modified":"2026-07-14T14:53:49","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T14:53:49","slug":"us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/","title":{"rendered":"US CPI: One month buys the Fed time but it doesn\u2019t buy a trend"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h4 id=\"h-bottom-line\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2434fd22297845b057596637ae73caa1\">Bottom Line:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The June CPI report gave the Fed a welcome surprise, as both headline and core reported below expectations. Headline inflation declined -0.4% m\/m, helped in large part by the drop in gas prices. More notable was the core inflation reading \u2013 at 0.0% m\/m it was a welcome reprieve. And while it rounded to flat, this was technically the first negative month-over-month print since May 2020. Tariff pressures appear to have peaked in H1 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/one-year-later-how-us-tariffs-and-trade-policy-have-reshaped-the-landscape\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-DataFlashes-US-12896-ddd8694b\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-DataFlashes-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"as we anticipated\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">as we anticipated<\/a>), and we did not end up seeing any pressures from FIFA as expected. Still, recent geopolitical events present upside risks to both headline and core inflation and importantly, there remains a notable gap between the y\/y pace of PPI and CPI, meaning there is pressure in the pipeline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indeed, one month doesn\u2019t make a trend but the underlying details should allow the Fed to remain on hold for the foreseeable future. The June print was especially consequential for the market \u2013 it widely viewed the June CPI report as the determining factor for whether a hike would materialize at the July meeting. <br>The combination of a slowdown in payroll growth along with the surprise core inflation reading means the Fed will see two additional months of data before their meeting in September.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are three core themes that stood out in today\u2019s report:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-8c919d34ae66b1a6a478e1ebfe1ef814 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>1) Core inflation outright declined (technically)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Core goods inflation declined -0.1% m\/m. Blanket tariff pressures (IEEPA\/Section 122) appear to have peaked, and we are now primarily seeing disinflation in the trade-exposed core goods space (except for recreation commodities). But product-specific tariffs (Section 232) are still weighing on motor vehicle parts and equipment pricing (+7.5% m\/m).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Core services inflation was entirely flat (+0.0%).&nbsp; Housing pressures appear to be abating. Month-over-month price growth for shelter was the weakest since January 2021. While OER remained firm at +0.2%, rent of primary residence rose only 0.15% m\/m. And lodging away from home outright declined even amid major sporting events for the World Cup.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Amidst concerns of AI-fueled inflation, we have yet to see a meaningful uptick in CPI for information and technology commodities. In fact, IT commodities declined -0.5% m\/m (though spikes in PPI for electronic components and accessories for intermediate demand remain a concern). &nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This morning\u2019s prints on their own do suggest a cooler PCE print in June, though June PPI data will be crucial in determining the trajectory of PCE.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-a48c19f7d09bcab1632715a76f28afc4 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>2) The breadth of inflation is decelerating<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the month of June, the breadth of inflationary pressures (adjusted for weighting) decelerating meaningfully. On a one-month basis, only about one-quarter of CPI basket items reported price growth at or above 3%, which is even below the pre-pandemic average share of 35%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The year-over-year pace of headline inflation is now in-line with average hourly earnings (up 3.5% y\/y in June). The upshot is this means we do not expect to see a spike in demand-driven inflation in the near-term, as US consumers play catch-up after gas price spiked at the same time that tax refunds are wound down.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-ab1930b5456c34d41ae96a4a193dd707 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>3)<\/strong> <strong>No June gloom for the Fed \u2013 this print buys them time<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is too soon to declare victory on inflation even as we saw a retracement in June. But the outright decline in super core inflation is a welcome development. June\u2019s print buys the Fed time \u2013 but this is not yet a trend.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Much of prior price pressures stem from external shocks (geopolitical, trade-related, and a structural AI buildout) and the situation remains extremely fluid with oil prices rising above post-MOU levels.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Spending continues to be underpinned by high-income households and retired Baby Boomers, who are benefiting from non-labor income growth, even as lower-and-middle-income cohorts remain squeezed. We are reasonably optimistic on the consumer outlook, though momentum may wane in the back half of the year if gas prices spike again, without a buffer from tax refunds.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a57120b93a53&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a57120b93a53\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"3125\" height=\"1875\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Core-goods-vs1.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12932\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Core-goods-vs1.png 3125w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Core-goods-vs1.png?resize=300,180 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Core-goods-vs1.png?resize=768,461 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Core-goods-vs1.png?resize=1024,614 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Core-goods-vs1.png?resize=1536,922 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/Core-goods-vs1.png?resize=2048,1229 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3125px) 100vw, 3125px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of US Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s U.S. economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior US Economist at RBC. She is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic forecasts across GDP, employment, and inflation, and providing macro commentary through publications, presentations, and the media.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an US Economist at RBC, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":354,"featured_media":9675,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[85,81],"tags":[11,135,58,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-12896","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-data-flashes","category-us-analysis","tag-economy","tag-jobs","tag-labour-market","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US CPI: One month buys the Fed time but it doesn\u2019t buy a trend - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US CPI: One month buys the Fed time but it doesn\u2019t buy a trend\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-14T14:38:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-07-14T14:53:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/04\/inf-US.png?quality=80\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"6134\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"3700\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ryan\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ryan\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ryan\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/02112de18bba13ecad57b66ad60c6335\"},\"headline\":\"US CPI: One month buys the Fed time but it doesn\u2019t buy a trend\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-14T14:38:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-07-14T14:53:49+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":765,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/23\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/inf-US.png?quality=80\",\"keywords\":[\"Economy\",\"Jobs\",\"Labour Market\",\"U.S.\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Data Flashes - US\",\"U.S. Analysis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\\\/\",\"name\":\"US CPI: One month buys the Fed time but it doesn\u2019t buy a trend - RBC Economics\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/23\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/inf-US.png?quality=80\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-14T14:38:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-07-14T14:53:49+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/02112de18bba13ecad57b66ad60c6335\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/23\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/inf-US.png?quality=80\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/23\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/inf-US.png?quality=80\",\"width\":6134,\"height\":3700,\"caption\":\"RBC Economics - CPI (inflation) - U.S.\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"US CPI: One month buys the Fed time but it doesn\u2019t buy a trend\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/\",\"name\":\"RBC Economics\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/02112de18bba13ecad57b66ad60c6335\",\"name\":\"Ryan\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/f0843829bf2a140d7f1558d019b1cfc53baf3d840314e048efb1d54f83bf9d3f?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/f0843829bf2a140d7f1558d019b1cfc53baf3d840314e048efb1d54f83bf9d3f?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/f0843829bf2a140d7f1558d019b1cfc53baf3d840314e048efb1d54f83bf9d3f?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Ryan\"},\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/author\\\/rsproule\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"US CPI: One month buys the Fed time but it doesn\u2019t buy a trend - RBC Economics","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"US CPI: One month buys the Fed time but it doesn\u2019t buy a trend","og_url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/","og_site_name":"RBC Economics","article_published_time":"2026-07-14T14:38:23+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-07-14T14:53:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":6134,"height":3700,"url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/04\/inf-US.png?quality=80","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Ryan","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Ryan","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/"},"author":{"name":"Ryan","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/02112de18bba13ecad57b66ad60c6335"},"headline":"US CPI: One month buys the Fed time but it doesn\u2019t buy a trend","datePublished":"2026-07-14T14:38:23+00:00","dateModified":"2026-07-14T14:53:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/"},"wordCount":765,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/04\/inf-US.png?quality=80","keywords":["Economy","Jobs","Labour Market","U.S."],"articleSection":["Data Flashes - US","U.S. Analysis"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/","url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/","name":"US CPI: One month buys the Fed time but it doesn\u2019t buy a trend - RBC Economics","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/04\/inf-US.png?quality=80","datePublished":"2026-07-14T14:38:23+00:00","dateModified":"2026-07-14T14:53:49+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/02112de18bba13ecad57b66ad60c6335"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/04\/inf-US.png?quality=80","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/04\/inf-US.png?quality=80","width":6134,"height":3700,"caption":"RBC Economics - CPI (inflation) - U.S."},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-cpi-one-month-buys-the-fed-time-but-it-doesnt-buy-a-trend\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"US CPI: One month buys the Fed time but it doesn\u2019t buy a trend"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/","name":"RBC Economics","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/02112de18bba13ecad57b66ad60c6335","name":"Ryan","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0843829bf2a140d7f1558d019b1cfc53baf3d840314e048efb1d54f83bf9d3f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0843829bf2a140d7f1558d019b1cfc53baf3d840314e048efb1d54f83bf9d3f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f0843829bf2a140d7f1558d019b1cfc53baf3d840314e048efb1d54f83bf9d3f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Ryan"},"url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/author\/rsproule\/"}]}},"author_meta":{"display_name":"Ryan","author_link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/author\/rsproule\/"},"featured_img":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/04\/inf-US.png?quality=80&w=300","jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/04\/inf-US.png?quality=80","coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Data Flashes - US<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/us-analysis\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">U.S. Analysis<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Data Flashes - US<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">U.S. Analysis<\/span>"]},"tags":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/us-analysis\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Economy<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/us-analysis\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Jobs<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/us-analysis\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Labour Market<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/us-analysis\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">U.S.<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Economy<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Jobs<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Labour Market<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">U.S.<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":"0","relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 14 hours ago","modified":"Updated 14 hours ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on July 14, 2026","modified":"Updated on July 14, 2026"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on July 14, 2026 2:38 pm","modified":"Updated on July 14, 2026 2:53 pm"},"featured_img_caption":"RBC Economics - CPI (inflation) - U.S.","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12896","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/354"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12896"}],"version-history":[{"count":33,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12896\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12936,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12896\/revisions\/12936"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9675"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12896"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12896"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12896"},{"taxonomy":"rbc_econ_content_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rbc_econ_content_type?post=12896"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}