{"id":12285,"date":"2026-06-26T16:11:52","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T16:11:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=12285"},"modified":"2026-06-26T16:28:25","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T16:28:25","slug":"june-jobs-report-should-reinforce-the-feds-inflation-first-stance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/june-jobs-report-should-reinforce-the-feds-inflation-first-stance\/","title":{"rendered":"June jobs report should reinforce the Fed\u2019s inflation-first stance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Next week, all eyes will be on the June jobs report \u2014 though for a Fed laser-focused on inflation<\/a>, we expect the June data will continue to provide reassurance rather than cause for concern from a Fed that largely treated the labor side of the mandate as an afterthought<\/a> at the June meeting. We expect +145K jobs were added in June with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

The nonfarm payrolls prints in 2026 look different than 2025. Nearly +570K jobs have been added so far this year (averaging +114K per month), compared to a paltry +116K in all of last year. June should continue this streak, with an added tailwind: the World Cup. Leisure and hospitality added +70K in May<\/a> \u2014 mostly food services and drinking places \u2014 and we expect hiring held steady in June as stadiums, bars, and restaurants staffed up. We’d reasonably expect these gains to reverse by August once the tournament wraps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the strength isn’t just a World Cup story. Even outside of leisure and hospitality, monthly hiring has consistently exceeded +100K. Health care still accounts for the lion’s share, but the composition is broadening. Trade-exposed sectors like manufacturing and transportation and warehousing are adding back jobs shed in 2025. The weak spots remain concentrated in white-collar industries \u2014 information, commercial banking, and real estate \u2014 which continue to shed positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One wrinkle: we expect an influx of new labor market entrants in June as the school year ends, and college students search for summer jobs. This is seasonal and typical, but it adds bodies to the labor force and works to offset retirements. All else equal, we expect the participation rate will hold steady (at 61.8%) in June.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Here\u2019s what else we\u2019re watching next week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n