{"id":10458,"date":"2026-05-08T15:09:23","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T15:09:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=10458"},"modified":"2026-05-08T15:23:53","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T15:23:53","slug":"us-jobs-report-labor-market-on-solid-footings-despite-energy-shock-concerns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-jobs-report-labor-market-on-solid-footings-despite-energy-shock-concerns\/","title":{"rendered":"US labor market on solid footing despite energy shock concerns"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-6600e5f926381bc85491d5907389a68a\" id=\"h-bottom-line\">Bottom Line:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The April payroll print marked a massive upside for a second consecutive month (+115k vs +65k consensus) and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. <\/strong>We have been operating under the assumption that structural tightness will limit net new hiring and keep the unemployment rate low. And two consecutive months of strong payrolls prints are still consistent with this narrative. It is too soon to say whether we have reached a turning point, but we know that last year\u2019s exceptional weakness in trade-exposed sectors appears to be moderating, for now. Just as firms who over-hired during the aftermath of the pandemic had to reverse course, sectors that put off hiring during the peak of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/one-year-later-how-us-tariffs-and-trade-policy-have-reshaped-the-landscape\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-DataFlashes-US-10458-2ce3d274\" data-dig-label=\"Trade War\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-DataFlashes-US\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Trade War<\/a> have opted to add jobs over the last two months. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/us-supreme-court-ruling-does-not-mean-tariffs-are-going-away\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-DataFlashes-US-10458-2ce3d274\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-DataFlashes-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"overturn of IEEPA\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">overturn of IEEPA<\/a>&nbsp;created an opportunity for trade related sectors to increase activity without being subject to those tariffs (although some remain in force viz a viz section 232).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, the bulk of job growth was in health care, and we don\u2019t expect that story to change. Encouragingly, consumer-reliant sectors reflect a consumer backdrop that is not succumbing to demand destruction as a result of higher gas prices \u2013 hiring in retail trade, leisure &amp; hospitality, and other services was robust and is reminder that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/monthly-executive-briefing-its-still-hard-to-bet-against-the-us-economy\/\">it\u2019s hard to bet against the consumer and the US economy<\/a>.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/monthly-executive-briefing-its-still-hard-to-bet-against-the-us-economy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-DataFlashes-US-10458-2ce3d274\" data-dig-label=\"it\u2019s hard to bet against the consumer and the US economy\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-DataFlashes-US\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">it\u2019s hard to bet against the consumer and the US economy<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The employment report this month supports our view that we will continue to see a stable unemployment rate and a sidelined Fed through the remainder of 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a0040a830f2e&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a0040a830f2e\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"901\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/05\/image002.png?quality=80\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10504\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/05\/image002.png 1050w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/05\/image002.png?resize=300,257 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/05\/image002.png?resize=768,659 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/05\/image002.png?resize=1024,879 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are key takeaways from the April employment report:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-4063c36b430b12da25f4f14a7995ba59\"><strong>1) Cyclically-exposed services sector hiring is improving after months of weakness \u2013 but it\u2019s too soon to say if this is a trend<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>A total of 65K jobs were added in the cyclically-exposed services sector (which excludes private education, health and government hiring). While this looks exceptionally strong, over the last year, this sector is still down 84k from year-ago. While the gains over the past two months help offset the broader decline, the question remains: is this a turning point? With some uncertainty surrounding future trade policy, we don\u2019t think these sectors are out of the woods yet. &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The wholesale trade (+6k), retail trade (+22k), transportation and warehousing (+30k), and leisure and hospitality (+14k) sectors all added jobs in April. Both the information and finance sectors shed jobs over the last two months, despite the strong headline gains. These sectors both reported to have the highest rates of AI adoption across the economy.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The health sector is still the only sector that added jobs over the past year. Demographic forces (i.e., the aging of the population) will help support job growth in this sector over the next several years.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-5b9f29b89550d6be1cc3dbcd42a19a65\"><strong>2) The unemployment rate is holding steady despite all of the layoff headlines<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% for two consecutive months. Beneath the surface, we saw the number of unemployed new entrants and re-entrants rise (+119k), reflecting a mismatch of skills between those workers and the job openings. &nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The unemployment rate rose slightly for workers aged 20 to 24 (i.e., recent college grads). And the rise in the underemployment rate to 8.2% from 8.0% suggests younger workers with college degrees are settling for jobs that don\u2019t require those degrees. The continued uptick in delinquent student loans reflects a tough job market for recent grads.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>We also saw a slight uptick in marginally attached workers working part-time for economic reasons, a sign that some firms are cutting back on hours to reduce costs. However, the notable rise Aggregate Weekly Hours Index for private sectors (+0.4ppt) signals that overall labor demand remains strong.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-8b46c032f4cbd9bf3c230479a3e608cb\"><strong>3) Workers are seeing strong growth in take home pay<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>In a tight labor market, we are closely monitoring both hours worked and average hourly earnings. Combining those measures to get average weekly earnings (i.e., the take home pay for workers) is a better gauge of consumer health \u2013 one that shows consumers can maintain their ability to spend.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Wages are sticky, meaning it\u2019s difficult for businesses to reduce wage rates as a cost cutting measure. Instead, a reduction of hours is the mechanism by which firms can lower employment costs when other input costs rise. That was not the case in April, despite the rise in energy prices.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Looking at the industry level, trade-exposed sectors (wholesale, transportation and warehousing) show employees working fewer weekly hours since Liberation Day \u2013 likely a strategy to partially offset tariff costs.&nbsp; But white-collar service sectors, namely, finance and information, are also showing weakness in hours against a backdrop of accelerating AI adoption. &nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>About the Authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of U. Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s U.S. economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior US Economist&nbsp; at RBC. Carrie is responsible for projecting key US indicators including GDP, employment, consumer spending and inflation for the US. She also contributes to commentary surrounding the US economic backdrop which she delivers to clients through publications, presentations, and the media.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an US Economist at RBC, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":4561,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[85,81],"tags":[11,58,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-10458","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-data-flashes","category-us-analysis","tag-economy","tag-labour-market","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US labor market on solid footing despite energy shock concerns - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-jobs-report-labor-market-on-solid-footings-despite-energy-shock-concerns\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US labor market on solid footing despite energy shock concerns\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-jobs-report-labor-market-on-solid-footings-despite-energy-shock-concerns\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-08T15:09:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-05-08T15:23:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/09\/Employment2-banner-compressed.png?quality=80\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"3067\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1850\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"viktoriyapanahova\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"viktoriyapanahova\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-jobs-report-labor-market-on-solid-footings-despite-energy-shock-concerns\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-jobs-report-labor-market-on-solid-footings-despite-energy-shock-concerns\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"viktoriyapanahova\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/109dd1bd3c90e818f8159356d46905ea\"},\"headline\":\"US labor market on solid footing despite energy shock concerns\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-05-08T15:09:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-05-08T15:23:53+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-jobs-report-labor-market-on-solid-footings-despite-energy-shock-concerns\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":913,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-analysis\\\/us-data-flashes\\\/us-jobs-report-labor-market-on-solid-footings-despite-energy-shock-concerns\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/23\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/Employment2-banner-compressed.png?quality=80\",\"keywords\":[\"Economy\",\"Labour Market\",\"U.S.\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Data Flashes - 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