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Canada's homeownership costs continue to climb despite slowing
resale activity: RBC Economics
TORONTO, September 27, 2010 — Homeownership
costs in the second quarter rose across Canada for the fourth
consecutive time despite the recent slowing in resale market
activity, according to the latest housing report released
today by RBC Economics Research.
"Higher mortgage rates in tandem with a further appreciation
in home prices boosted the monthly costs associated with carrying
a mortgage on a typical home," said Robert Hogue, senior
economist, RBC. "This extended the deteriorating trend
in affordability since the middle of last year; however, affordability
levels in Canada generally remain within a safe range."
The RBC Housing Affordability Measure captures the proportion
of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of
owning a home of a certain category. During the second quarter
of 2010, measures at the national level rose between 1.1 and
2.1 percentage points across the housing types tracked by
RBC (the higher the measure, the more difficult it is to afford
a home).
The detached bungalow benchmark measure rose by 1.9 of a
percentage point to 42.9 per cent, the standard townhouse
inched up by 1.1 of a percentage point to 34.1 per cent, the
standard condominium climbed by 1.1 of a percentage point
up to 29.3 per cent and the standard two-storey home experienced
the largest increase, climbing 2.1 percentage points to 48.9
per cent.
The report notes that the slide in affordability over the
past year has reversed approximately half of the considerable
improvements in affordability witnessed in 2008 and early
2009.
RBC projects a temporary easing in housing affordability
as a result of the recent decline in mortgage rates and the
increasing evidence that home prices have started to stabilize
in many markets. However, the Bank of Canada is expected to
continue raising interest rates over the next 12 to 18 months
which will become the dominant factor making homeownership
less affordable once the near-term reprieve has passed.
"Current levels of affordability suggest some greater-than-usual
stress weighing on Canadian homebuyers, but this does not
represent an imminent threat to the market," noted Hogue.
"While we expect rising interest rates to increase mortgage
servicing costs, a leveling off in home prices and increasing
household income will partly offset the negative effect."
Ontario and B.C. saw the most significant deterioration in
affordability in the second quarter; however, some improvements
in specific housing types occurred in Alberta (condominiums)
and Saskatchewan (townhouses). All other provinces showed
modest erosion, with the exception of two-storey homes in
Manitoba where the rise in the RBC measure was quite substantial.
RBC's Housing Affordability Measure for a detached bungalow
in Canada's largest cities is as follows: Vancouver 74.0 per
cent (up 1.7 percentage points from the last quarter), Toronto
50.2 per cent (up 2.4 percentage points), Montreal 43.2 per
cent (up 1.8 percentage points), Ottawa 41.2 per cent (up
3.6 percentage points), Calgary 39.2 per cent (up 0.9 percentage
point) and Edmonton 34.7 (up 2.5 percentage points).
The RBC Housing Affordability Measure, which has been compiled
since 1985, is based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow,
a reasonable property benchmark for the housing market. Alternative
housing types are also presented including a standard two-storey
home, a standard townhouse and a standard condominium. The
higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
For example, an affordability reading of 50 per cent means
that homeownership costs, including mortgage payments, utilities
and property taxes, take up 50 per cent of a typical household's
monthly pre-tax income.
Highlights from across Canada:
- British Columbia: Homeownership in B.C. is testing
household budgets with affordability deteriorating again
in the second quarter despite downward pressure on home
prices and market activity sinking since the start of this
year. RBC's measures rose between 1.1 and 2.5 percentage
points, representing some of the strongest increases among
the provinces, and are near all-time highs for all housing
categories. Very poor affordability is likely to restrain
demand in the period ahead.
- Alberta: Affordability measures have improved in
Alberta since early 2008 as a result of lacklustre housing
market conditions. The second quarter saw a mixed picture
with prices easing slightly for condominiums but rising
in all other categories. RBC notes that affordability measures
are at or below their long-term averages, implying little
downside risk to the market and boding well for a strengthening
in housing demand once the provincial job market shows more
substantial gains.
- Saskatchewan: Rising mortgage rates during the
quarter caused further deterioration in affordability for
most housing types in the province. With the sole exception
of townhouses edging lower, increases in affordability measures
pushed levels further above long-term averages, indicating
that some tensions may be building. RBC expects a strong
rebound in the provincial economy this year and next which
is likely to help ease such tensions.
- Manitoba: Sellers kept a firm hand on pricing by
reducing the supply of homes available for sale in the province,
resulting in home prices continuing to appreciate, particularly
for two-storey homes, which is translating into further
deterioration of housing affordability. Homebuyers are feeling
more pressure with affordability measures standing close
to long-term averages.
- Ontario: After setting new record highs this past
winter, home resales in the province have since fallen precipitously
due to a number of factors including the HST, changes in
mortgage lending rules and the rush of first-time homebuyers
to lock in low mortgage rates. Housing affordability in
Ontario continues to reverse the considerable improvements
achieved in late-2008 and early-2009 with measures increasing
for a fourth consecutive time in the second quarter, representing
some of the largest increases among the provinces.
- Quebec: Quebec's record-breaking housing market
rally proved to be unsustainable in the second quarter with
resale activity settling to a pace comparable to levels
witnessed in 2006-2007, which were considered to be fairly
vigorous at the time. Affordability was hampered by home
prices trending upward with RBC affordability measures now
at or very close to the pre-downturn peaks and exceeding
their long-term averages. Further increases in homeownership
costs could have a more visibly adverse effect on housing
demand.
- Atlantic Canada: The East Coast housing market
was not immune to the significant downturn in activity that
swept across the country since spring with housing resales
falling back across the region to the lows reached during
late-2008 and early-2009. Cooling demand loosened up market
conditions, restraining home price increases and limiting
the rise in affordability measures which remain very close
to long-term averages. Overall, housing affordability in
Atlantic Canada remains attractive and signals little undue
stress at this point.
The full RBC Housing Affordability report is available online,
as of 8 a.m. E.D.T. today at www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/house.pdf.
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For more information, please contact:
Robert Hogue, RBC Economics Research, 416-974-6192
Elyse Lalonde, Media Relations, RBC, 416-974-8810
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