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U.S. consumer confidence sinks lower as Americans appear
to be waiting for the Obama administration to throw it a lifeline
Sole bright spot is rise in expectations for the future,
according to RBC CASH Index
NEW YORK, January 15, 2009 — Consumer sentiment
reached a six-year low as Americans continued to be rocked
by increasing job losses, poor holiday shopping season reports
and the ongoing inability of the government and the private
sector to stabilize the economy, according to the most recent
results of the RBC CASH (Consumer Attitudes and Spending by
Household) Index. As a result, the overall RBC CASH Index
stands at 13.3 for January 2009, down slightly from 15.3 in
December 2008. However, the continued slide in consumer confidence
is offset somewhat by an increase in expectations for the
future, just days before President-elect Obama is inaugurated.
"Consumer sentiment remains weighed down by concerns
about the economy, people's wealth in terms of their home
equity and 401(k) values, and the rising prospects of long-term
unemployment," said T.J. Marta, Economic and Fixed Income
strategist for RBC Capital Markets. "Despite this downcast
mood, the tick higher in expectations suggests hope for the
future under the new administration, although the outlook
is clearly cautious."
The RBC CASH Index is a monthly national survey of consumer
attitudes on the current and future state of local economies,
personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make
large investments. The Index is composed of four sub-indices:
RBC Current Conditions Index; RBC Expectations Index; RBC
Investment Index; and, RBC Jobs Index. The Index is benchmarked
to a baseline of 100 assigned at its introduction in January
2002. This month's findings are based on a representative
nationwide sample of 1,000 U.S. adults polled from January
8-13, 2009, by survey-based research company Ipsos Public
Affairs. The margin of error was ±3.1 per cent.
Highlights of the survey results include:
- With December unemployment hitting 7.2 per cent, the highest
since the early 1990s, the RBC Jobs Index
saw an incremental drop of nearly 4 points in January to
61.8, compared to 65.6 last month, and a new all-time low.
Personal job loss experience has now touched more than half
of all Americans, with 53 per cent of consumers saying they
or someone in their close circle has lost their job in the
past six months due to the economy, up from 50 per cent
last month.
- The RBC Expectations Index was the one bright
spot, actually improving in January to -11.3 from -21.2.
Although still in negative territory, the Index's improvement
may signal rising hope for the future. The improvement may
be driven by Americans' openness to the stimulus proposals
coming out of Washington rather than any expectation that
local economies will improve quickly: Just 30 per cent of
survey respondents believe their local economy will be stronger
six months from now, up only slightly from 29 per cent last
month.
- The RBC Current Conditions Index dropped
to another all-time low in January and currently stands
at 8.7, compared to 16.5 last month. Consumers increasingly
are feeling the effects of the recession, with over a third
(37 per cent) saying their personal financial situation
is currently weak.
- Americans' overall opinions regarding investing dipped
further this month, setting another all-time low. The RBC
Investment Index currently stands at 22.5, down
from 31.0 in December. Two-thirds of American consumers
(66 per cent) say they are less confident now in their ability
to make investments for the future including retirement
and education than they were six months ago.
"Many consumers appear to be holding their breath to
see what the new administration will do to address the struggling
economy," added Marta. "A lack of decisive action
or some quick results could negatively affect the economic
confidence of the American public, causing it to sink yet
further."
The entire RBC CASH Index report can be viewed at: www.rbc.com/newsroom/rbc-cash-index.html.
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Contacts:
Loretta A. Healy, The Hubbell Group, Inc., (781) 878-8882
Kevin Foster, RBC, (212) 428-6902
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