U.S. consumer sentiment inches up after six months of declining
confidence, according to RBC CASH Index
NEW YORK, May 9, 2008 — Americans' economic
enthusiasm rallied slightly this month, increasing nearly
10 points and reversing six straight months of declining confidence,
according to the most recent results of the RBC CASH (Consumer
Attitudes and Spending by Household) Index. The survey, which
measured the attitudes of 1,000 consumers earlier this week,
found respondents more positive about their future economic
prospects, but still worried about job security. As a result
of these mixed attitudes, the overall RBC CASH Index, released
today by RBC, stands at 39.0 for May, up from its previous
all-time low of 29.5 in April.
"Consumers are beginning to look beyond the current
economic downturn, as evidenced by the increase in their expectations
for the future," said T.J. Marta, economic and fixed
income strategist for RBC Capital Markets. "The fact
that Americans' perception of the jobs environment weakened
is not inconsistent with the rebound in the overall index,
as the job market tends to lag the economic cycle."
The RBC CASH Index is a monthly national survey of consumer
attitudes on the current and future state of local economies,
personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make
large investments. The Index is composed of four sub-indices:
RBC Current Conditions Index; RBC Expectations Index; RBC
Investment Index; and, RBC Jobs Index. The Index is benchmarked
to a baseline of 100 assigned at its introduction in January
2002. This month's findings are based on a representative
nationwide sample of 1,000 U.S. adults polled from May 5-7,
2008, by survey-based research company Ipsos Public Affairs.
The margin of error was ±3.1 per cent.
Highlights of the survey results include:
- Consumers' economic outlook brightened this month, as
evidenced by the RBC Expectations Index, which
increased more than 24 points in May, but remains in negative
territory for the fifth consecutive month and stands at
-24.1. Currently, fewer than one-third (32 per cent) of
Americans believe their local economy will be weaker in
the near future, down from 38 per cent last month.
- The RBC Current Conditions Index, at 57.4,
showed a slight increase when compared to the 54.6 registered
last month. The increase in the index is being driven by
improving attitudes toward the current state of personal
finances, with 30 per cent of consumers rating personal
finances as strong, compared to 25 per cent in April. Attitudes
toward the current state of their local economy remained
statistically unchanged in May, with 15 per cent of consumers
again this month rating their local economy as strong, and
42 per cent of consumers rating their local economy as weak,
compared to 41 per cent in April.
- Americans' attitudes toward investing improved slightly
in May, increasing the level of the RBC Investments
Index to 60.7, up more than four points from the
56.4 level recorded last month. Consumers reporting that
the next month will be a good time to invest in the stock
market held steady at 27 per cent, compared to 28 per cent
in April. Confidence in real estate investment also held
steady in May. More than one-third of consumers (37 per
cent) believe the next 30 days will be a good time to buy
real estate, compared to 38 per cent last month.
- At 93.7, the RBC Jobs Index dropped to the
lowest level since the index began in January 2002. Anxiety
over future job loss increased in May, with one in four
(26 per cent) Americans reporting job loss is likely in
the next six months, up from 20 per cent in April. Consumer
confidence in personal job security also declined slightly
this month, dipping one point to 27 per cent, compared to
28 per cent in April.
The entire RBC CASH Index report can be viewed at: www.rbc.com/newsroom/rbc-cash-index.html.
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Loretta A. Healy,
The Hubbell Group, Inc., (781) 878-8882
RBC Capital Markets, (212) 428-6902