Modest growth for Manitoba, says RBC EconomicsImproved agricultural and strong construction sector offset weaker migration
TORONTO, October 13, 2006 — Manitoba's economy
is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent in 2006 and 2.7 per cent
in 2007, according to the latest provincial economic outlook
released today by RBC.
"The driving factor behind Manitoba's modest growth
remains its well-diversified economy," said Craig Wright,
vice-president and chief economist, RBC. "Manitoba maintains
its usual middle- of- the- pack growth performance with brighter
agricultural prospects and a thriving construction sector
offsetting weaker migration this year."
RBC notes that out-migration poses a risk for Manitoba's
housing market. The first quarter of 2006 reported a strong
interprovincial outflow of migrants. Of the more than 5,000
people who left the province in the first quarter of 2006,
roughly 70 per cent headed west. With pressing labour shortages
out west expected into 2007, RBC forecasts a further drain
on Manitoba workers is likely.
According to the RBC report, Manitoba's crop receipts were
down 22 per cent at the midpoint of 2006, reflecting 2005's
poor crop quality due to above average levels of precipitation
that year, and weak prices. While last season's crops were
damaged by wetness, below average precipitation readings this
season are indicating dry harvest conditions in some regions.
However, even slightly dry conditions are a relief for this
agricultural sector which is expected to rebound from last
year's flood damage and sell at higher prices.
For the overall Canadian economy, RBC has revised its 2006
growth forecasts downward with Ontario being sharply downgraded
to last place among the provinces. Alberta and British Columbia
are now in first and second place respectively, bumping Newfoundland
and Labrador to third place for growth in 2006.
The RBC Economics Provincial Outlook assesses the
provinces according to economic growth, employment growth,
unemployment rates, personal income growth, retail sales,
housing starts and the Consumer Price Index.
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For more information contact:
Craig Wright,
RBC Financial Group Economics, (416) 974-7457
Derek Holt,
RBC Financial Group Economics, (416) 974-6192
Beja Rodeck, RBC Media Relations, (416) 974-5506
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