October 1964 — Vol. 45, No. 10 —
Chance versus
Informed Planning
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Making a living involves taking
a chance, but those who conduct their business with the minimum
of worry are people who minimize the possibility of adverse
chance by planning ahead.
In business, and in living generally, there are some people
who stake their capital, their talent and their time on the
turn of circumstance; others use their talent to direct their
capital and their time in an ordered way so as to gain the
greatest chance of success.
The occasions when a man trips over a gold nugget while
strolling with his head in a cloud of wishful thinking are
few and far between. Indeed, making a living demands more
and more that a man watch not only where he is stepping at
this moment, but what is coming up a half mile or a mile ahead,
next year or ten years hence.
It has been said that history turns on small hinges, and
so do people's lives. We are constantly making small decisions,
some of them apparently trivial. The total of these decisions
finally determines the success or failure of our lives.
That is why it is worth while to look ahead, to set a course,
and so to be at least partly ready when the moment of decision
comes. By anticipating events we avoid muddle—headedness.
Informed planning is based upon the fact that phenomena
do not occur singly. Every one comes preceded by many others,
accompanied by many, and followed by many. The cause—and—effect
relationship of things is the most important natural law that
we have.
When we look behind the happening to find the cause, we
lose that absurd air which so many people have of being shocked
and pained by the curiousness of life. We see that the events
which appear to be freaks of chance are only the latest steps
in long lines of causation.
We know very little about real causes, but we do know that
under certain conditions certain things have always happened.
What we need to do is to judge apparent causes by three questions:
(1) Does the causal relationship really exist? (2) Is it the
only one that exists; (3) Does it exist with the inevitability
we believe? These tests are necessary because sometimes events
merely follow each other in successive points of time without
tending toward an end; sometimes apparently related events
may move together because a third influence bears on both;
the causes of similar phenomena may not be identical.
Chance in history
John Buchan, later Lord Tweedsmuir, Governor General of
Canada, gave an interesting lecture under the title "The Causal
and the Casual in History", published by Cambridge University
Press in 1929. He provided a number of illustrations of trilling
occurrences being followed by great consequences.
It is futile, but nevertheless interesting, to speculate
on what might have happened if such and such had been done.
For example, the Roman Empire existed by virtue of the grandest
application of technology that the world had seen: its roads,
bridges, aqueducts, tunnels, sewers, vast buildings, metallurgy
and agriculture. Why did not the Roman engineers invent the
steam engine? They might have done so at any time. Alfred
North Whitehead suggests in The Aims of Education (Mentor
1929): "I ascribe it to the fact that they lived in a warm
climate and had not introduced tea and coffee. In the eighteenth
century, when steam was put to use, thousands of men sat by
fires and watched their kettles boil."
Here is another illustration from the story of steam. Napoleon's
determination to invade England has been derided, but what
if Robert Fulton's offer to outfit a steam—driven fleet
had not become buried in committee? Fulton wrote to Napoleon:
"I can remove the obstacles ( wind and storm ( which protect
your enemies, and, notwithstanding his fleet, transport your
armies to his territory at any time and within a few hours."
Napoleon sent the proposal to his Minister of the Interior
for instant examination by a special committee, with a covering
letter in which he said the project "may change the whole
face of the world." Nothing happened.
As an example in another area, consider the delay in opening
up Canada to settlement. Thomas B. Costain wrote in The
White and the Gold (Doubleday Canada Ltd. 1954): "the
grant of ten pounds by a parsimonious king (Henry VII of England)
to the man who had found a continent (John Cabot) may have
put a damper on individual enterprise in following up his
exploit and so resulted in the temporary loss of this great
land which later would be called Canada."
There has been an infinity of little things turning the
course of history. Menelaus might have taken the sensible
view that he was lucky to be deprived of such a flirtatious
wife as Helen: then there would have been no launching of
a thousand ships, no Trojan war, no Iliad, no Odyssey.
Napoleon might not have had an itchy face on that day in November
1790 when his fate rested in the hands of the French legislators:
then he would not have scratched it, drawing blood which led
the mob to believe he had been attacked: then the mob would
not have invaded the assembly hall and forced the appointment
of Napoleon as Consul of France.
Goering confessed during the trial of Nazi war criminals
at Nuremberg that a pretty blonde diverted him when he was
on his way to join the Freemasons: if he hadn't met that blonde,
he said, he would have become a Freemason; it would then have
been impossible for him to get into the Nazi party and he
could not have become the powerful collaborator in Hitler's
evil—doing. Charles Dickens wanted to go on the stage
but was turned down because of his husky voice due to a head
cold, so he became an author instead of an actor. Citizen
Drouet was a modest man who dragged a cart across a gateway
near the bridge at Varennes during the French Revolution,
frustrating the attempt of Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette
to flee the guillotine.
In lighter vein, consider the effect of Cleopatra's way
with men. Pascal says in his Pensées: "Cleopatra's
nose; had it been shorter, the whole aspect of the world would
have been altered." But perhaps Pompey, Caesar and Anthony
would have found her undoubted intelligence, her personality
and her appeal irresistible no matter what length her nose.
And Egypt, as the granary of the Roman world, was a trump
card for ambition to seize; its importance did not depend
upon the profile of its queen.
Some of these were chance events, but we must not attribute
to chance things which have an explicable cause, nor should
we allow confidence in chance to prevent our doing what common
sense and logic tell us we can do to bring about the end we
desire.
About luck
Belief in magic has played a large part in human history.
The essence of all hocus—pocus is the delusion that desired
results can be obtained without rational co—operation
of human powers and physical conditions. The business man
cannot approach his job efficiently if he does so in the mood
of primitive men. Yet there are still people who carry good
luck pieces, or have them on their desks, and there are still
gamblers who turn their coats for luck as men did in Victor
Hugo's Laughing Man.
The "lucky" man is usually the man who knows how much to
leave to chance, who knows that it is a mathematical certainty
that chance is no respecter of persons but is absolutely impartial.
The universe is governed by the law of cause and effect: if
he ignores this law, a man may make excuse for his failure
by blaming chance or luck.
The man who has planned his course, and is going in the
right direction, sets up a group of circumstances contributing
to his success. Then he is in position to turn every incident
into something for his good. As a wise philosopher once said:
"The numbers are indifferent, the dice are indifferent. How
can I tell what may be thrown? But carefully and skilfully
to make use of what is thrown, that is where my proper business
begins."
People have various ideas about the source of inventions
and discoveries. One is the flash—of—inspiration
theory, as when the apple fell on Newton's head and suddenly
he knew all about gravitation; a second is that invention
comes by putting trained teams of professional people to work
along strictly defined lines from nine to five daily. In fact,
most great inventions and discoveries have come from a flash
of creative genius based on a long period of planned and painstaking
research. A man needs originality, knowledge of his subject,
freedom from prejudice, discipline to work hard, and a plan
to follow.
Unless there is planning based on information and preparation,
the chances of success are diminished and you find yourself
helpless before the impact of an unexpected problem or twist
of events. When you provide for known eventualities you are
left free to deal with the unknown.
Well—informed planning enables you to proceed without
hesitation. You study data on the needs, you imitate and improve,
you make good deficiencies, you evaluate substitutes, and
you do all these as you go along, based on the information
you have gathered and your increasing experience.
The mere act of recording on paper the why, what, where,
when, who and how of any job will, of itself, generate ideas
of how the work can be done efficiently. That is constructiveness
at its best.
No one can deny these virtues: planning helps to avoid overlooking
details which should be considered before action is taken;
planning co—ordinates and schedules actions so that efforts
are placed where there is most room for improvement and chance
for success. A plan should be detailed for the length of time
that the future is reasonably predictable. It should contain
specific target dates for accomplishment.
There are two sorts of detailed planning: the nervous, fussy
and pestering kind, and the planning that, with a definite
end in view, takes the necessary pains to attain it. Sinclair
Lewis illustrated the first in his book Babbitt where
"Babbitt's preparations for leaving the office to its feeble
self during the hour and a half of his lunch period were somewhat
less elaborate than the plans for a general European war."
The biographer Vasari illustrates the second: the Pope commissioned
Leonardo da Vinci to paint a picture. On learning that Leonardo
had started by experimenting on the varnish he proposed to
use, seeking a product that would be long—lasting, the
Pope exclaimed: "Alas, this man will never get anything done,
for he is thinking about the end before he begins."
There is a bonus value in planning: it avoids worry. The
wise man, though he will not sit down under preventable misfortunes,
will not waste time and emotion upon such as he can avoid
by careful forethought. To plan is to take positive action
against worry. You escape being perpetually irritated by the
unexpected and by the demands of things left undone.
It is good planning, in private as in business life, to
make a list of things that need to be done. Number them in
order of their importance. Then start with number one and
work through the list. Making the list will consume five minutes,
and it will save hours.
All this having been said, however, there is no shirking
the plain truth that chance does play a part in our lives.
This was well illustrated by the historical incidents. We
are compelled to follow circumstances imposed upon us by our
environment. As in a game of chess, we are made to modify
our tactics to meet those of our opponent. But there is no
excuse for starting off without a plan that looks ahead as
far as we can see.
The scientific method
Scientists are the best exponents we have of people who
work with system and order. The scientific method does not
mean the designing of new devices or techniques, but a way
of thinking.
Science means getting at facts and trying to understand
them. What the scientific approach does is give one a specific
and detailed line of endeavour which has a probability of
bringing about the desired result. This is not confined to
chemistry or physics or biology, but may be seen in the procedure
of a successful business man solving a practical problem,
a lawyer sifting evidence, a statesman framing a new piece
of legislation, a householder planning renovation of his home.
The rules of the scientific method are: to frame the question
in clear terms, to take nothing for granted, to accept facts
no matter how unpalatable, to collect evidence or data from
experience and observation, and to draw preliminary conclusions
called hypotheses. The next step is to test the hypotheses
to find out what one best fits the observed facts and the
ideas deduced and the purpose to be sought. Then draw conclusions
and go to work.
This scientific approach leads not only to better work but
to better policy decisions. It uncovers the truth, discovers
what things are, and reveals how to manipulate them.
Some people dismiss the scientific method from consideration
in business and everyday life by saying that it is intolerably
cautious, hedging and stuck in the mud. On the contrary, the
method speeds things up by making sure from the beginning
that the result will be what we want, that the means we use
will be efficient, that cause and effect have been considered,
that whatever of chance enters into the picture can be handled
because of the environmental preparedness.
A scientist, C. H. Waddington, defines science as "the organized
attempt of mankind to discover how things work as causal systems."
Could there be any better aim for business executives with
regard to economic environment and productive capacity?
Information
The fuel behind all verbal reasoning is information. Having
information is the basic reality by which you can predict
events and control developments. Everything great is based
on knowledge, and nothing original that is worth while can
be done by a man who lacks the instinct of the truth—seeker.
The man who built the first cave house, and the man who designed
Place Ville Marie, won success by piercing the mist and obscurity
of the unknown. Information is not wisdom, but knowledge used
for thinking. By keeping informed of probable trends, a company's
executives are able to direct their sales effort into green
pastures before the old pastures begin visibly to shrivel
and dry up.
A man needs to resurrect within himself the boy's passion
for finding out. Young children are interested in almost everything
that they see and hear. They are always engaged with ardour
in the pursuit of knowledge. Men who have achieved greatly
are of that temperament throughout their lives. They see and
observe, they note and analyse, more than others.
It is a big step toward success when a man is able to notice
that there are some things he does not know, and takes action
to fill the gap. To know, to get into the truth of something,
is one of life's mystic delights.
Knowledge makes a difference not only to the judgments we
utter but to our integrity in matters of true or false: When
we have reliable information relating to some matter in which
we are interested we have firm ground to stand on as we make
our plans and predictions.
We have to do some research. Newton did not doubt that the
heavens "declare the glory of God," but he was concerned to
find out, by looking through a telescope and doing a sum in
mathematics, precisely how they managed it.
Analyse and test
Analysis is the foe of vagueness and ambiguity, those arch—enemies
of sensible problem solving. It sorts out the essential factors
in a situation or a plan and perceives how they are related
to one another. It takes a large view, using the breadth of
mental vision which sees things in their true perspective.
It discriminates with regard to one fact and another in its
significance for our purpose.
Facts to be analysed usually fall into four classes: form,
material, purpose, duration. The philosopher—emperor
Marcus Aurelius put this into a beautiful paragraph: "Make
for thyself a definition or description of the thing which
is presented to thee, so as to see distinctly what kind of
a thing it is in its substance, in its nudity, in its complete
entirety, and tell thyself its proper name, and the names
of the things of which it has been compounded, and into which
it will be resolved."
Having broken down the problem, situation or plan and examined
it in its parts, and pushed aside the inconsequentials, what
we have left is the significant fraction that needs attention.
We must interpret, as well as chronicle and tabulate.
Executives who are fond of mottoes or slogans might write
in their diaries for checking once a month: "WIGO", standing
for "What is going on?" It will prompt them to tear their
minds away from routine to take a look around and within themselves.
Answers to the question "WIGO?" can be fascinating, sometimes
exasperating, but nearly always tremendous fun.
There are two simple actions essential before a problem
can be considered solved or a plan thought of as being complete:
tidy up and check. In no matter what convulsive scene you
may be living, you need to assign proportions and priorities
as far as possible so that no loose ends are left dangling.
An imbalance in one activity may upset a grand plan.
Decisions must be tested. A business man has to cultivate
his sense of discrimination. Examine the bases of plans, and
test every step of progress in carrying them out. It saves
time and money to show up falseness wherever it exists.
Having alternatives
Decisions should take note of alternatives. A plan need
not be absolutely cut and dried, perfect to the last crossed
"t" and dotted "i". It must make intelligent provision for
the unforeseen.
There is no complete catalogue of the mistakes people make
in business and in personal life. An examination might show
the most common to be these: failure to see alternatives,
the limitation of alternatives to an over—simplified
either/or; false estimates of the relative merits of alternatives.
When you come to a fork in the road your plan may not fit
"as is", but if you have looked ahead discerningly you are
in position to choose the better path with advantage.
Whatever happens, it is always profitable to have thought
things out. Science has its "back—room boys" who have
their eyes glued to microscopes and their minds always a step
ahead of what is known. Business men, too, need a place of
retreat to which those responsible for policy and planning
may retire to scrutinize closely and think broadly. The words
"ivory tower" are often used disparagingly. But to withdraw
into a place where one can assimilate facts and get ideas
about them, think calmly and plan constructively: that is
common sense. It is the glory of the executive type mind that
it takes knowledge, experience and wisdom and draws them into
focus through planning.
Then follows responsible action. A working balance must
be reached between desirable ends and the price to be paid.
Lesser men flee from this responsible decision—making,
but successful leaders know that a business will starve on
a diet of suspended judgment alone.
Planning is barren without organization and action. In an
age whose symptomatic drug is the tranquillizer, there is
room and need for individuals with the zest to face life boldly.
They will get the structure off the drawing—boards on
to the foundations. We recall the little Dutch boy who saved
his town by plugging a hole in a dyke with his finger. Besides
the boy, his finger, and the lucky chance of his passing by,
there were needed realization of the situation, initiative
and quick action.
This involves courage, too. Having done our planning, we
must risk our convictions in an act. We have chosen, and choice
involves precarious possibilities. If we have done our homework
intelligently we can face this challenge with calmness. In
fact, if we have prepared well we may take as our motto that
engraved on a famous battle—axe: "I either find a way
or make one."
Change is certain
No planning, of whatever skill, can protect us from having
to conform to the great changes that are inevitable in our
lives, our business, our country and the world. In an older
society people moved on rails from birth to death, according
to indisputable laws. Now we are aware of many question marks,
and other people's answers affect our most intimate lives.
This means that our plans are subject to review and amendment
to meet new conditions. We need to move our mental furniture
around, to throw out whatever does not belong in the new environment
to make room for better pieces.
Look again at science. The discoveries of Aristotle were
replaced by the discoveries of Newton, which were replaced
by the discoveries of Einstein.
The essence of all this is that planning cannot be put off
or ignored without damage and danger, no matter how optimistic
of good luck you may be, and that planning must take account
of chance. Indeed, to travel without plans imposes this added
element of chance: you may unconsciously follow plans made
by others for their personal benefit.
A life or a business without planning is like a lump of
modelling clay in a kindergarten, which every day assumes
a different shape according to the personality of the child
who tries to express himself through it.
Vital personalities prepare and plan their future. They
take all the measures necessary to influence and insure the
fulfilment of their aims. They don't travel bumper to bumper,
but keep their eyes on the road far enough ahead to avoid
trouble.
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